FCS National Championship: Montana State vs. North Dakota State Preview

The FCS Championship has arrived, and it's set to be a showdown between #1 Montana State and #2 North Dakota State in Frisco, TX. If you’re tuning into one game outside the College Football Playoff this holiday season, make it this one. These two programs represent excellence in vastly different ways, setting the stage for a compelling clash of styles. In this article, we’ll dive into the keys to victory for each team and break down the matchups that will define the game.

Winning the middle 4

If there’s one area where both Montana State and North Dakota State thrive, it’s controlling what I like to call the "middle 4 minutes." This refers to the final two minutes before halftime and the first two minutes after halftime—the critical possessions that can swing momentum in a game. Dominating this stretch is about more than just scoring; it’s about managing the clock, executing, and seizing the psychological edge that comes with heading into the locker room with momentum on your side.

For Montana State, this often means leveraging their explosive offensive capabilities to strike quickly, while their defense looks to create havoc with timely stops. On the other hand, North Dakota State is a master of methodical drives and complementary football, grinding out yards on the ground and controlling the clock to leave their opponents scrambling. The team that controls this pivotal stretch in Frisco could very well take home the title.

Montana State Offense

For the Bobcats’ offense, everything starts and ends with Tommy Mellott. The dynamic quarterback has been the engine driving Montana State all season, and his ability to take over games will be essential in Frisco. Averaging an incredible 8.4 yards per carry, Mellott has consistently gashed defenses with both designed QB runs and scrambles off broken plays.

Against a disciplined and physical North Dakota State defense, Mellott will need to replicate his season-long dominance on the ground. Whether it's keeping the chains moving with his legs or hitting a home run with explosive plays, his impact in the rushing game will set the tone. Montana State’s hopes of hoisting the trophy may hinge on how effectively Mellott can deliver another high-efficiency performance.

Additionally, the Bobcats must generate explosive plays in the passing game, capitalizing on the defensive attention Tommy Mellott commands in the run game. Montana State’s bread and butter lies in their outside zone and counter concepts, and the play-action opportunities off those looks are critical. If the Bobcats can effectively sell the run and hit big plays downfield, they’ll force the Bison defense out of their comfort zone.

It’s not just about throwing the ball deep—it’s about timing and situational awareness. Expect to see Mellott look for opportunities to exploit safeties creeping into the box or linebackers biting on run-action. These moments could be the difference between sustaining drives and taking control of the game.

Montana State Defense

Montana State’s red zone defense has been a big part of their playoff success, standing tall when it matters most. Against South Dakota, the Bobcats delivered three red zone stops without allowing a touchdown, and they added two more against Idaho. These weren’t just forced field goals—several came on pivotal fourth-down stands.

This becomes even more important considering the Bobcats’ high-scoring offense. When you can consistently trade field goals for touchdowns, the game tilts heavily in your favor. In Frisco, Montana State’s ability to rise to the occasion in the red zone will be tested. If the Bobcats can keep the Bison out of the end zone and force them to settle for three, their path to victory becomes much clearer.

Additionally, the Bobcats excel at generating pressure with their front four. During their playoff run, they’ve racked up an impressive 10 sacks, consistently disrupting opposing quarterbacks without needing to rely heavily on blitzing. The ability to generate pressure with just the front four allows the secondary to drop 7 and avoid giving up big plays downfield, for the most part.

Below are a few examples of how Montana State’s defensive line has created havoc in the backfield. These plays will be crucial against North Dakota State.

North Dakota State Offense

Run the damn ball! For the Bison, the path to victory lies in embracing their identity and leaning heavily on their run game. Returning to their traditional ground-and-pound approach will allow North Dakota State to control the flow of the game, dominate time of possession, and, most importantly, keep Tommy Mellott and the explosive Bobcats offense on the sideline.

Montana State has shown vulnerability to big plays on the ground, as evidenced by the two long touchdown runs they surrendered to South Dakota in the semi-finals. One came on a “G Lead Toss,” and the other on an “Outside Zone”. The Bison must look to replicate this success by sticking to their physical rushing attack and capitalizing on Montana State’s occasional lapses in run defense.

The Bison should also prioritize getting the ball to Bryce Lance. He’s been nothing short of electric in the playoffs, hauling in 16 receptions for 6 touchdowns, making him weapon in the red zone and a game-breaking threat in open field. Montana State’s defense has shown a tendency to let receivers slip behind their coverage, which makes Lance a critical piece of the Bison’s attack.

The Bobcats typically operate out of a 1-high safety shell, except in situations against pass-heavy teams like Idaho. This should provide North Dakota State with plenty of chances to create 1-on-1 matchups on the outside, an area where Lance thrives. Additionally, concepts such as “Mesh” could be particularly effective against Montana State’s reliance on Cover 1 principles. If the Bison can scheme Lance into favorable matchups, they’ll add a dynamic element to complement their rushing offense. Staying balanced has been NDSU’s key to victory all season.

(Examples of deep threats versus MSU)

(Bryce Lance receptions versus SDSU)

North Dakota State Defense

Stopping the run has been the cornerstone of the Bison defense throughout their playoff run, and it will need to remain their primary focus in the championship. Aside from a single 90-yard touchdown run allowed against Abilene Christian, the Bison have been incredibly stout, holding opponents to an average of just 3.2-3.5 yards per carry.

Against a dynamic runner like Tommy Mellott, this challenge takes on another level of importance. The Bison defense must find a way to contain him and keep his yards per carry under five. That’s no small task, considering Mellott’s explosiveness and ability to extend plays. However, if the Bison can limit his production and force Montana State into longer down-and-distance situations, they’ll put themselves in an excellent position to come out on top in Frisco.

Another key adjustment for the Bison defense will be to dial up blitzes from non-linebackers, relying on corners, nickels, and safeties to bring pressure. These players tend to be faster and more athletic than traditional linebackers, which may give the Bison an edge in tracking down Mellott. North Dakota State has shown a willingness to incorporate defensive backs into their pressure schemes late in the season, adding an element of unpredictability to their approach. (See the cutup below for examples.)

Finally, the Bison must prioritize limiting explosive plays by Mellott. Montana State’s entire offense revolves around their quarterback’s ability to create chunk gains, whether on designed runs, scrambles, or off-play action. If the Bison can keep those explosive plays in check and get off the field on key downs, they’ll not only frustrate the Bobcat offense but also set up their own unit for success. Containing Mellott is the clearest path to a North Dakota State victory.

Conclusion

If you’re a football coach, this is a game to circle on your calendar. The FCS National Championship promises to be a masterclass in scheme, adjustments, and execution. Both Montana State and North Dakota State are sure to come out with well crafted game plans, but it’s the in-game adjustments—the subtle tweaks—that could decide the outcome.

I’ve been asked countless times who I think will win this game, and honestly, this might be harder to call than the FBS College Football Playoff. Do you side with Montana State, the offensive juggernaut led by arguably the most explosive player in the country? Or do you go with North Dakota State, the dynasty with 17 national championships and a history of coming up big in the brightest moments? Truthfully, I don’t have an answer—and that’s what makes this matchup so exciting.

Be sure to tune in for what promises to be an instant classic, and as always, check back here at The Board Drill for a full breakdown after the game.

FCS National Championship Game Information:
Date: Monday, January 6th
Time: 7:00 PM EST
Network: ESPN
Location: Frisco, TX